News

Toll Brothers Expands in Pacific Northwest

Monday, November 28, 2011

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers Inc. is expanding into a new state for the first time since the days of the housing boom.

The Horsham, Pa.-based company said Monday that it bought privately held Seattle-area builder CamWest Development LLC for an undisclosed amount.

Toll Brothers last made a foray into markets in a new state in 2005, when it entered Minnesota. The builder's last acquisition also was in 2005, when it bought the Orlando, Fla., division of Landstar Homes.

CEO Douglas Yearley Jr. said the CamWest acquisition does not represent the start of a broader expansion push by Toll, which operates in 20 states.

"We have been looking at Seattle for a decade, so this was a bit of a long time coming, and we found the right opportunity," Yearley said.

While Toll had been eyeing the Seattle market for years, it was put off by concerns over how to ramp up operations in a market where land can be hard to find and difficult to clear for new construction.

The CamWest deal not only gains Toll established operations in a new market, but a portfolio of some 1,300 or so land parcels, giving Toll an immediate jump start, Yearly said.

"They have a terrific land position in a difficult land market," he said.

CamWest, based in Kirkland, Wash., develops luxury single-family houses, condominiums and townhouses. The average selling price for homes in CamWest's backlog is about $500,000.

Toll said the acquisition will add to its earnings in fiscal year 2012, which began this month. For the 2011 calendar year, CamWest expects to deliver about 180 homes, generating $90 million in revenue.

Earlier this month, Toll reported home deliveries in the August-to-October quarter rose 8 percent from a year earlier, while net signed contracts grew by 15 percent. The company ended fiscal 2011 with 1 percent fewer home deliveries, but a 7 percent increase in net signed contracts.

Uncertainty over the U.S. economy, high unemployment and concerns that U.S. home prices have yet to hit bottom have kept many home buyers on the sidelines this year. That led to a lackluster spring-and-summer peak homebuying season and has placed U.S. sales of new homes on track to be the worst on records dating to 1963.

Sales of new homes rose in September after four straight monthly declines, but only after builders cut their prices because of depressed demand.

Yearley said he's impressed with how the Seattle market has held up during the housing downturn, and cites employment growth and the presence of large companies such as Boeing Co. and Microsoft Corp. as factors that bode well for home sales.

CamWest founder Eric Campbell said all of the company's home communities are starting to sell out, which prompted the builder to look for financing to build more communities.

Financing has been tough to come by for private builders — a trend that has helped Toll and other publicly traded homebuilders take market share from smaller rivals during the housing downturn. Campbell said he was concerned that any financing he could get would not allow the company to be as aggressive as it would like to be, leaving the builder vulnerable to competition from a larger rival.

Ultimately, he said, a buyout by the nation's largest builder of luxury homes proved the best option.

Reported by Associated Press (11/22/2011)

Single-family Housing Starts, Permits Post Gains

Monday, November 21, 2011

Single-family housing starts rose 3.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 430,000 units in October, according to newly released data from the U.S. Commerce Department. This improvement was somewhat masked by an 8.3 percent decline in multifamily starts that kept the combined number for nationwide housing production virtually flat at 628,000 units in October.

Meanwhile, single-family permits also posted a measurable gain of 5.1 percent to 434,000 units in the latest report, which is their fastest pace since December of 2010. 

“The government’s numbers for October housing production are very much in keeping with what home builders have been telling us in our recent surveys,” said Bob Nielsen, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Reno, Nev. “While we still have a long way to go toward a recovery, some signs of hope are emerging in certain markets where economic and job growth is occurring and where foreclosures have not been an overwhelming obstacle.” 

“The three-month moving averages for both housing production and permitting activity have been gradually rising since this spring, which is consistent with our forecast for slow improvement in market conditions through the end of this year and a positive sign that a more solid recovery will begin to take hold in 2012,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “That said, the improvements we are seeing are still limited to scattered local markets where economies are improving, and obstacles such as tight credit conditions for builders and buyers, appraisal issues stemming from new homes being compared to distressed properties, and consumer concerns about job security are definitely slowing the progression of both a housing and economic recovery.” 

While combined housing starts in October declined by a barely perceptible 0.3 percent to a rate of 628,000 units, the single-family sector posted a 3.9 percent gain to 430,000 units. Meanwhile, the more volatile multifamily sector posted an 8.3 percent decline to 198,000 units following an unsustainably large gain in the previous month. 

Combined starts activity was up in three out of four regions in October. Gains of 17.2 percent, 9.7 percent and 1.6 percent were registered in the Northeast, Midwest and South, respectively, while the West posted a 16.5 percent decline. 

Permit issuance, which can be an indicator of future building activity, rose 10.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 653,000 units in October on gains in both the single- and multifamily sides. Single-family housing permits rose 5.1 percent to 434,000 units – their highest level since December of 2010 – while multifamily permits rose 24.4 percent to 219,000 units – their highest level since October of 2008. 

On a regional basis, combined permitting activity was down 1.6 percent in the Northeast and 3.7 percent in the Midwest, but up 21.5 percent in the South and 5.4 percent in the West.

Reported by National Association of Home Builders (11/17/11)


NAR Predicts Modest Recovery to Begin in 2012

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

The housing market should see a modest recovery in 2012, with a modest rise in sales and home prices, according to a new forecast from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

Existing-home sales are predicted to rise 4-5 percent from this year's expected total of 4.96 million, according to the NAR, with an unspecified rise in median home prices. Double-digit gains are expected for both new home sales and construction starts, though activity in those areas is still expected to remain weak by historical norms.

 Pent-up demand seen

The NAR expects that underlying forces in the housing market and economy will eventually start to assert themselves, overcoming the negative factors that have held the market in check until now. 

"Tight mortgage credit conditions have been holding back home buyers all year, and consumer confidence has been shaky recently," said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economists. "Nonetheless, there is a sizeable pent-up demand based on population growth, employment levels and a doubling-up phenomenon that can't continue indefinitely. This demand could quickly stimulate the market when conditions improve."

The forecast is based in part on NAR expectations that gross domestic product will increase by 2.2 percent next year, up from 1.8 percent in 2011, and that unemployment will fall to 8.7 percent, down from 9.0 percent currently, with about 2 million new jobs created.

Prices, mortgage rates expected to rise

A falling inventory in homes available for sale is expected to produce a moderate rise in home prices, according to the NAR, although prices have yet to fully stabilize in most areas.

New home sales are forecast to rise to 372,000, still low by historic standards, but up from 302,000 in 2011, which will be the lowest total in at least 60 years. New home construction is expected to rise to 630,000 units, up from 583,000 this year.

On the downside for consumers, mortgage interest rates are expected to rise to about 4.5 percent on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, up about half a percentage point from current levels but still well below historical norms.

Reported by MortgageLoan.com (11/14/11)


Homebuilders' Outlook Improves, but Remains Weak Overall

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Homebuilder sentiment jumped in November, according to a report from the National Association of Home Builders.

The NAHB's housing market index came in at a reading of 20 for November, bringing the index to its highest level since May 2010. Economists were expecting the index to remain unchanged from the originally reported reading of 18 in October according to Thomson One Analytics.

Still, the index remains well below 50, indicating that builders largely view the market as poor.

"While this second solid monthly gain on the builder confidence scale is encouraging, the overall measure remains quite low due to the many challenges that home building continues to face with regard to the high number of foreclosures, the difficulties of obtaining construction financing and accurate appraisals, and the restrictive lending environment that is discouraging potential buyers," said Bob Nielsen, NAHB chairman and a home builder from Reno, Nev.

Reported by The Street (11/16/11)